For those of you that listen to me on Mile High Sports Radio, KBPI 106.7 FM, or via Twitter, you know I’ve been ranting and raving about Colorado’s lineup on the blue line through all of March. Why?
Because that’s the source of the struggle. The lack of consistent defensive effort is the biggest reason why they have continued to slide down a slippery rope and almost lose their grip on a Western Conference playoff spot.
Many fans, friends and scouting cohorts have been asking me if the main reason for the 6-8-1 record in March was due to Craig Anderson being tired. They ask me if the reason the Avs are giving up more goals than usual is because he’s simply wearing down, like it was something we all expected to happen, like it was bound to come.
Well, if you take a closer look at the defensive pairings in March, you’ll find that there’s much more to this freefall than meets the eye. Goaltending has been weakening, but as I’ll explain, that’s not the source of the issue. Below you will find the defensive lineup for every game in March, including scratched players.
As you can see, only four times in 15 games did the same set of six defensemen skate together. This is not only an issue, it’s a perfect storm just waiting to destroy this team’s playoff hopes. Here are a few stats that come out of the lineups you see above. I’m not a big stats guy, but it’s important evidence that proves something needs to be done about the constantly-changing defensive pairings.
:: BRETT CLARK ::
When he was in the lineup, the Avs were 5-3-1 and allowed 29 goals against.
When Clark was a scratch, the Avs were 1-5-0 and allowed 25 goals against.
:: RUSLAN SALEI ::
When he was in the lineup, the Avs were 3-6-1 in March.
When he was a scratch, the Avs were 3-2-0 in March.
:: RYAN WILSON ::
When he was in the lineup, the Avs were 3-4-0 in March.
When he was injured or scratched, the Avs were 3-4-1 in March.
First and foremost, the importance of Brett Clark being in the lineup is irrefutable. You should think of him as “Ol’ Reliable” back there. He’s not the fastest skater, but he brings a clearly visible sense of confidence and composure and it spreads throughout the other five defensemen. He is the glue that holds the blueline together. He’s not flashy, but he gets the job done and he skates with an extremely calming influence.
The other thing Clark brings to the table, which is absolutely necessary in today’s game, is his shot-blocking ability. That alone should force him from ever being scratched, but that reasoning has clearly been ignored. Anderson already faces the most shots in the league on average - you don’t think he appreciates and wants Clark blocking another 6-8 shots a game? It adds up, it makes a difference, it’s something every NHL team would die to have on a consistent basis.
Looking at all eight defensemen that skated in March, the biggest correlation to winning and losing with any one defenseman is by far and away Clark. It just goes to show that you need your workhorses on the ice, regardless of whether or not they make a couple of bad mistakes.
Every defenseman is going to be hung out to dry sooner or later, it’s a matter of doing whatever is possible to keep things positive in the locker room. There’s a very fine line between a defenseman playing bad enough to be scratched and a defenseman looking bad because he’s trying to be responsible on the ice by covering someone else’s man.
Regardless of who is in or out, there’s a collective sense of hesitation and uneasiness when the puck is in Colorado’s zone. There’s very little communication, paths are being double-crossed, there’s too much confusion, too many turnovers, too many missed assignments in the slot and too much looking around. There’s not enough composure and now there’s problems with the penalty killing. To be honest, it’s a big, sloppy mess. But can you blame them? I’d have trouble making clean passes and transitioning with ease if I was rarely passing to the same guy twice.
I’m not going to sit here and question Sacco’s decision-making. That’s not my job, nor is it something I care to try and figure out. He puts the best defensemen out there and he knows the team inside and out. Rather, I’d like Avalanche fans to know why the constantly shifting lines negatively impacts a team’s ability to play with any sense of familiarity.
As a goaltender, I can tell you that communication, cohesion and “being on the same page” is about the most important thing when it comes to playing as a group of three different defensive pairings. There’s a working relationship, an understanding so to speak, that must be created and strengthened between defensive partners over the course of the season.
Think back to the beginning of the season. What were the pairings? Were they consistent? Not really. I can remember Adam Foote skating a lot with Kyle Cumiskey in the first half of the season and I remember John-Michael Liles being paired with Kyle Quincey as well. Then it was Scott Hannan with Quincey for a little while … and it’s about that time I start to lose track … mainly because the pairings were always different.
So as I’ve been saying all throughout March, as long as the three defensive pairings are different, even just by one player, it’s going to make bringing a complete defensive effort that much harder.
Anderson isn’t physically tired. Any goalie in decent shape can play 70+ hockey games in a season. But goaltending is 90% mental, and when you have to play at your best and display more focus than you have at any given point in the season, it’s much, much tougher in March and April to play with that same level of energy and intensity.
Playing 70+ games is no big deal, but having to win massive games late in the season when you’ve already faced more shots than any other goalie and played more games than Patrick Roy ever did in an Avalanche uniform, you’re going to hit a roadblock sooner or later.
Anderson has hit that mental roadblock. He’s cutting corners with the effort, he’s getting more and more visibly frustrated by the weak and collapsing defense in front of him. He’s getting rattled easily and he’s not displaying that same cold death stare we’ve been so used to seeing.
But the reasons for this are not his alone. It comes from the unraveled, unsettled defensive play in front of him. The Avalanche are caving in on their defensive leader and they are allowing bodies to get in his face, distract and screen him. And when more bodies are crashing and flying right in front of Anderson, he’s losing sight of the puck. And when a goalie loses sight of the puck, even if for a nanosecond, he’ll start to give up rebounds, which leads to more issues.
Whether through statistics like the ones I posted above or just by watching the cohesion in the defensive zone, you can see how things have gone from bad to worse for the Avalanche in just a few weeks.
